Prediction of revascularization by coronary CT angiography using a machine learning ischemia risk score

Objectives The machine learning ischemia risk score (ML-IRS) is a machine learning–based algorithm designed to identify hemodynamically significant coronary disease using quantitative coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). The purpose of this study was to examine whether the ML-IRS can predict revascularization in patients referred for invasive coronary angiography (ICA) after CCTA. Methods This study was a post hoc analysis of a prospective dual-center registry of sequential patients undergoing CCTA followed by ICA within 3 months, referred from inpatient, outpatient, and emergency department settings ( n = 352, age 63 ± 10 years, 68% male). The primary outcome was revascularization by either percutaneous coronary revascularization or coronary artery bypass grafting. Blinded readers performed semi-automated quantitative coronary plaque analysis. The ML-IRS was automatically computed. Relationships between clinical risk factors, coronary plaque features, and ML-IRS with revascularization were examined. Results The study cohort consisted of 352 subjects with 1056 analyzable vessels. The ML-IRS ranged between 0 and 81% with a median of 18.7% (6.4–34.8). Revascularization was performed in 26% of vessels. Vessels receiving revascularization had higher ML-IRS (33.6% (21.1–55.0) versus 13.0% (4.5–29.1), p < 0.0001), as well as higher contrast density difference, and total, non-calcified, calcified, and low-density plaque burden. ML-IRS, when added to a traditional risk model based on clinical data and stenosis to predict revascularization, resulted in increased area under the curve from 0.69 (95% CI: 0.65–0.72) to 0.78 (95% CI: 0.75–0.81) ( p < 0.0001), with an overall continuous net reclassification improvement of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.503–0.769; p < 0.0001). Conclusions ML-IRS from quantitative coronary CT angiography improved the prediction of future revascularization and can potentially identify patients likely to receive revascularization if referred to cardiac catheterization. Key Points • Machine learning ischemia risk from quantitative coronary CT angiography was significantly higher in patients who received revascularization versus those who did not receive revascularization. • The machine learning ischemia risk score was significantly higher in patients with invasive fractional flow ≤ 0.8 versus those with > 0.8. • The machine learning ischemia risk score improved the prediction of future revascularization significantly when added to a standard prediction model including stenosis.