Epidemiology of human papillomavirus-related oropharyngeal cancer in a classically low-burden region of southern Europe

The incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related oropharyngeal cancer is increasing in some regions. Nevertheless, the epidemiology of this disease has not been extensively investigated in southern Europe. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with primary oropharyngeal cancer from 1991 to 2016. Cancer tissues underwent histopathological evaluation, DNA quality control, HPV-DNA detection and p16 INK4a immunohistochemistry. Data were collected from medical records. Factors associated with HPV positivity and time trends were evaluated with multivariable Bayesian models. The adjusted prevalence of HPV-related cases in 864 patients with a valid HPV-DNA result was 9.7%, with HPV-DNA/p16 INK4a double positivity being considered. HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer was likely to occur in non-smokers and non-drinkers, to be located in the tonsil or diagnosed at advanced stages. Time-trend analysis showed an increasing risk of HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer in the most recent periods (5-year period increase of 30%). This increase was highest and with a clear increasing trend only in the most recent years (2012–2016). The prevalence of HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer started to sharply increase in the most recent years in our setting, as occurred two decades ago in areas where most oropharyngeal cancer cases are currently HPV-related. Our results provide a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological landscape of HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer in a region of southern Europe.