Tumor mutational burden related classifier is predictive of response to PD-L1 blockade in locally advanced and metastatic urothelial carcinoma.

BACKGROUND:Immunotherapy has made encouraging progress in the treatment of urothelial carcinoma, but only a small percentage of patients respond effectively to the immune checkpoint blockade (ICB). Our study aims to develop a classifier could effectively predict the response to ICB. METHODS:Support vector machines recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE) algorithm was used to feature selection, then compared nine common binary classification algorithms through machine learning, we selected the classifier with the highest prediction performance (LASSO logistics classifier). Ten-fold cross-validation was used to avoid the overfitting effect. RESULTS:We developed a classifier on a urothelial carcinoma cohort treated with PD-L1 inhibitor Atzolizumab (IMvigor210 cohort, n = 272) and calculated a tumor mutational burden-related LASSO score (TLS) using the LASSO algorithm, which was significantly correlated with Tumor mutational burden (TMB) and neoantigen burden. We validated the efficacy of TLS in predicting prognosis and immunotherapy benefit in internal (IMvigor210) and external validation set (TCGA-BLCA, n = 406), respectively. CONCLUSIONS:After in-depth analysis, we provide a new idea for stratified treatment of such patients, that is, patients with high TLS should use ICB and also may benefit from hormone therapy, while patients with low TLS respond poorly to ICB and maybe benefit from targeting TGFβ.