United States 1-Predicting the Risk of Critical Events in ALS Disease Using Data Analytics

ALS is a neuro-degenerative disease causing continuous decay of motor neurons and muscle atrophy. Patients suffer from losing their abilities to speak, eat, move and. Due to having no permanent treatment, ALS eventually affects all abilities but disease progression shows a great variability. Using medical records of over 500 patients from Mayo Clinic, we analyse the ALS progression pathways, and estimate risks of losing abilities and needing medical interventions (e.g., feeding/breathing tube). We then develop a natural history model to to predict the risk of critical events (e.g., using wheelchair) over the course of the disease.