Mathematical modeling and comparative analysis of the Ebola epidemic reveal effective control measures

Abstract Background The Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a highly contagious disease which is caused by the Ebola virus. Various measures were used to prevent and control the spread of EVD in Guinea, Liberia Sierra and Leone. The aim of this study was to find out the most critical measures to prevent and control the spread of EVD and the effect of control in the three countries. Methods We used a novel deterministic compartmental model with the parameters that describes the spreading and control of Ebola, and then the data of confirmed case from the WHO was fitted to obtain the effect estimation of control measures. On the other hand, a comparative analysis also was used to explore the process. Results The results of our compartmental model showed that the control parameters ( a , c ) of pre-infection and post-infection are (0.1827, 0.1091), (0.5832, 0.3278) and (0.3696, 0.1281) in Guinea, Liberia Sierra and Leone, respectively. This means that the control measures in Liberia Sierra works best and that in Guinea works worst. The results of comparative analysis based on the same data showed that the quarantined individuals before infection ( R -squared R 2 = 0.848, standardized coefficients ε = 1.025), the safe burial teams ( R 2 = 0.772, ε = 0.365), and the Ebola treatment units (ETU) beds ( R 2 = 0.690, ε = 0.424) could significantly influence the incidence of EVD. Conclusion These findings indicted that a timely and effective quarantine plays a significant role in preventing and controlling the spread of EVD, and the findings would help us prevent and control the epidemic outbreak of new infectious disease in the future.