The yield curve as a predictor of recessions in the United States and Europe
semanticscholar(2014)
摘要
Economists often use complex mathematical models to forecast the path of the US economy and the likelihood of recession. But simpler indicators such as interest rates, stock price indexes, and monetary aggregates also contain information about future economic activity. In this paper, we examine the usefulness of one such indicator the yield curve, that is, the spread between long and short-term interest rates.
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