Science Journals — AAAS

INTRODUCTION: Emerging infectious diseases pose one of the greatest threats to human health and biodiversity. Phylodynamics is an effective tool for inferring epidemiological parameters to guide intervention strategies, particularly for human viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).However, phylodynamic analysis has historically been limited to the study of rapidly evolving viruses and, in rare cases, bacteria. Nonetheless, application of phylodynamics to nonviral pathogens has immensepotential, suchas for predictingdisease spread and informing the management of wildlife diseases. We conducted a phylodynamics analysis of devil facial tumor disease (DFTD), a transmissible cancer that has spread across nearly the entire geographic range of Tasmanian devils and threatens the species with extinction. DFTD is transmitted as an allograft through biting during common social interactions, susceptibility is nearly universal, and case fatality rates approach 100%. The goals of our study were to (i) characterize the geographic spread of DFTD, (ii) identify whether there are different circulating tumor lineages, and (iii) quantify rates of transmission among lineages.