A Simplified Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis Procedure : Application to the Seattle Fault Zone , Washington , USA

This paper extends a simplified probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) procedure to estimate the probability of surface fault displacement for the relatively low average slip rate Seattle fault zone in Washington, USA. The proposed procedure incorporates recent research to estimate earthquake magnitude and fault displacement—two key inputs to any PFDHA. A parametric study evaluates the sensitivity of the results to changes in the key PFDHA input parameters. Probabilistically-determined fault displacement hazard along the Seattle fault is most sensitive to fault type; and the choices of empirical models for maximum earthquake magnitude and average surface fault rupture scaling.