Alternative Configurations of Beijing’s Greenbelt: New Insights from a Recursive Spatial Equilibrium Model

Greenbelts are considered a key instrument for halting pancake-like urban expansion and providing a healthier urban environment. However, attempts to establish greenbelts in Beijing tended to falter: its first greenbelt of the 1990s disappeared under the urban expansion and its second is under a similar threat. In this paper we use a Recursive Spatial Equilibrium Model to simulate urban growth which not only represents the equilibrating interactions between work, living and travel but also the temporal dynamics of urban land expansion and building stock growth. This model builds upon 3 cross-sectional models for the year of 1990, 2000 and 2010. Alternative historic-if scenarios for 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 are tested. The model results assess the economic performance of the alternative scenarios and suggest that the configuration and timing of large urban green space, such as the greenbelt, have significant impacts on a city’s economic performance. The new insights point to a radical reconsideration of the design of strategic urban green spaces in fast growing cities. _______________________________________________________ M. Ma • Y. Jin (Corresponding author) Department of Architecture, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1PX, UK Email: mm819@cam.ac.uk Y. Jin Email: yj242@cam.ac.uk CUPUM 2015 317-Paper