Climate change and possible effects on the phenological development of grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.), simulated varietal suitability and sugar and acidity concentration in the fruits

Based on data on future climate developments elaborated by Meteo-Research, several simulation models were used and developed, respectively to estimate the impact of predicted changes on some aspects of viticulture in the Hessian wine-growing areas. Three locations were used; Geisenheim as a representative of the “Rheingau” area, Frankfurt as a representative of the most easterly extension of viticulture in Hesse and Gernsheim as a representative for the “Hessische Bergstraße”. Several future climate scenarios were used to model the effects on grapevine phenology, sugar and acidity concentration in the fruits and varietal suitability. Some rough estimates on the possible impact on vineyard site water balance were also conducted, yet without incorporating a suitable grapevine water relations model.