Prediction Of Biomedical Indexes As Basis Of Development Of The Priority Directions In Preventive Medicine

In order to prevent morbidity among the military servicemen, the main preventive measure is regular medical monitoring of the health of servicemen. We conducted a study of the morbidity of Russian servicemen for the period of 2009-2015, and, based on the analysis of morbidity data, forecasted the incidence rates for 2020-2030. The following research methods are used in the work: mathematical statistics, programming and modeling, clinical and epidemiological analysis. The scientific research is aimed at identifying the presence of a stable trend in the changes of incidence rates over a certain period of time and constructing a prognosis based on the data obtained separately for each nosological form. The forecast period is from 2020 to 2030. Equally important is the ability to develop proposals and recommendations for the planning of treatment and preventive measures based on the data obtained from the research, taking into account the results of the prognosis and the risk factors that lead to the occurrence of diseases. The reliability of forecasts depends on several factors. Such factors include the degree of inertia of the phenomenon subjected to forecasting, the degree of revealing the trend of the development of the phenomenon and the choice of the method for making the forecast. The period of forecasting plays an equally important role; long periods are less accurate. And wise versa, the shorter the forecast period is, the more accurate the forecast is.