How Well Can USDA Forecast Error of Corn Ending Stocks Be Explained?

Different from the previous literature, this paper investigates what kinds of information can explain the USDA forecast errors in crop ending stocks. The empirical results show that the futures basis, the level of monthly ending stocks, and the level of planted size are significant to explain the forecast errors. The out of sample performance is used and the adjusted forecasts are believed to improve the forecast accuracy of crop ending stocks.