Forecast of COVID-19 related deaths in the USA

Abstract ObjectiveDifferent governments have adopted different containment strategies for SARS-CoV-2. We compared reports of COVID-19 related deaths between countries with different strategies.DesignPublicly available data on numbers of reported COVID-19 related deaths between January 1st and April 2nd 2020 were compared between countries.ResultsIn countries that implemented strict containment strategies as soon as the virus was firmly established (e.g., Italy and Spain) the epidemic developed similarly to the development in China. Extrapolation suggests the cumulative number of deaths in Italy and Spain to rise to about 22,000 and 41,000, respectively. In South Korea where containment strategies were implemented before the virus arrived, the epidemic developed much slower. In the United States, however, where measures were taken later, the epidemic is developing explosively. Cumulative numbers of deaths in the New York, New Jersey, and Michigan area are forecast to reach about 15,000. Of note, 85% of these deaths are likely to occur within the first 50 days of the epidemic (i.e. before the end of April 2020).ConclusionsAlthough the future development of the epidemic remains difficult to predict accurately, current data suggest the United States will experience an explosive increase in deaths due to COVID-19 before the end of April 2020. Drastic measures are needed immediately to prevent other parts of the country from experiencing a development of this epidemic which is as dramatic as that seen in New York, New Jersey and Michigan.