Two-week global trends on 2019-nCoV fatality and virulence rates: a cross-sectional study

Abstract BackgroundThe recent Public Health Emergency of International Concern, caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is fast spreading, and contribution for the increase of knowledge about this outbreak is desired. The aim of this study is to analyse the global trend of 2019-nCoV fatality and virulence rates from 24 January to 06 February 2020.MethodsA cross-sectional study was carried out. Data from 2019-nCoV, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS CoV) were obtained from World Health Organization. Only confirmed cases and deaths directly attributed to these viruses were considered. For 2019-nCoV, severe illness was also considered. Two endpoints of interest were analysed: trends in fatality rate (death among confirmed cases x 100) and virulence rate (severe illness among confirmed cases x 100).ResultsThe 2019-nCoV fatality and virulence rate decreased 1.0 and 7.3 percent points during the analysed time-frame, respectively. The SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV fatality rate are five and 17 times higher than the current 2019-nCoV fatality rate. The current cumulative 2019-nCoV confirmed cases exceeded 3.5 and 11.3 times the SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV confirmed cases, respectivelly.ConclusionsA reduction in fatality and virulence rate associated with the novel coronavirus was observed in the analyzed time-frame. The novel coronavirus is spreading at higher rates than SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, although with comparative lower fatality rates. Continuous surveillance using additional indicators such as virulence rate (in addition to the fatality rate) may contribute to broaden and deepen the knowledge about the novel coronavirus.