The Effect of Social Distancing Measures on Intensive Care Occupancy: Evidence on COVID-19 in Scandinavia

Understanding the effectiveness of social distancing on the spread of COVID-19 is crucial to justify economically costly social distancing measures. We present a case study focusing on Scandinavia. Whereas Denmark and Norway imposed relatively strict measures, Sweden follows an extraordinarily lenient approach. We use a difference-in-difference approach in which Sweden serves as a counterfactual to Denmark/Norway to estimate the measures’ effectiveness. We estimate that lockdown begins to affect ICU occupancy after approximately 15-20 days. Denmark (Norway) would have seen an excess daily net inflow of around 7 (6) patients per day into intensive care if they would have followed the Swedish approach. As of April 8th, both countries would have had roughly twice the number of patients in intensive care had they not initiated lockdown.