A Forecast Model of Energy Security Level in The System of Managing Energy Efficiency at Enterprises

he paper emphasizes the importance of managing an energy-efficient development of enterprises by designing a forecast model of energy security level in the system of enterprise management. The paper aims to forecast likely scenarios for enhancing energy security, identify major priorities and discover new ways to ensure energy efficiency at enterprises. The paper employs the following research methods: synthesis and analysis - to identify the essence and value of scenario modelling; theoretical generalization - to determine the main components of energy security at enterprises; classification - to study the impact of each component of energy security at enterprises on the choice of optimal scenario development; logical generalization - to justify the relevance, aim and objectives of the research; the method of rising from the abstract to the concrete - to develop and substantiate forecast trends in the changes of energy security level. Results: weight coefficients of energy security components based on scenarios have been formed; an algorithm for forecasting energy security level at enterprises based on scenarios has been built; forecast trends in the changes of energy security level have been determined; forecast trend models of energy security level at enterprises based on the proposed scenarios have been designed.