Assessment of Malignancy Potential in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas on MDCT

Rationale and Objective: To assess the malignancy potential of intraduct papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) on multidetector-row computerized tomography according to the 2012 International Consensus Guidelines (ICG).Materials and Methods: This study retrospectively collected IPMNs confirmed by surgery from 2016 to 2019. The imaging findings of IPMNs were analyzed. IPMNs were classified as malignancy in the presence of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma and began in the presence of low- and intermediate-grade dysplasia.Results: A total of 207 patients (mean age: 63.7 +/- 7.9 years) were included, and the prevalence of malignancy was 28.0% (58 of 207). According to the 2012 ICG, the imaging findings of IPMNs were divided into worrisome features (WFs) and high-risk stigmata (HRS). The malignancy of IPMN with only one WF was relatively low (1.4%, 3 of 207). In multivariate regression analyses, the independent factors of IPMNs were enhanced mural nodule >= 5 mm (odds ratio [OR] = 19.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.8-55.4), abrupt change in the main pancreatic duct caliber with distal pancreatic atrophy (OR = 4.6, 95%CI 1.67-12.71), and thickened enhanced cyst walls (OR = 2.9, 95%CI 1.1-8.2). When the presence of more than two WFs or HRS (score >= 3) was regarded as indicating the malignancy potential of IPMNs on multidetector-row computerized tomography, the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were 89.7%, 75.8%, 79.7%, 59.1%, and 95.0%, respectively.Conclusion: According to the ICG in 2012, patients with IPMNs with only one WF have a low risk for malignancy, and the presence of at least two WFs or any HRS (score >= 3) suggests malignant IPMNs.