Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and 20-year risk of cardiovascular mortality and cancer

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) followed by cancer are the two leading causes of death worldwide. SCORE charts have been recommended in Europe to identify individuals at increased CVD risk. However, the SCORE ability to identify individuals at increased risk of cancer has not yet been evaluated. The aim of this study was to determine the SCORE chart calibration in a country with changing CVD epidemiology, and its discrimination ability to identify individuals at increased risk of cancer over 20-years. Methods: The present analysis includes data from two cross-sectional independent surveys within the Czech postMONICA study (randomly selected representative population samples of the Czech Republic, aged 25-64 years); 3209 individuals in 1997/98 and 3612 in 2006-2009. Results: The SCORE had reasonable discrimination to predict 10-year CVD mortality, but significantly overestimated the risk across all risk categories. During the 20-year follow up, high and very high-risk categories were associated with an increased risk of cancer morbidity (in particular colorectal, other gastrointestinal, lung and malignant skin) and cancer mortality, as compared to low risk category. Conclusions: The present study shows that periodical calibration testing of SCORE charts is needed in countries with changing CVD epidemiology. Furthermore, we show that in middle-aged individuals, identified by SCORE charts as being at high or very high risk for CVD, cancer morbidity and cancer mortality is increased. Rigorous cancer screening may be appropriate in this group, especially in countries with falling CVD mortality, where relative proportion of cancer mortality is increasing.