Using the Schaake shuffle when calibrating ensemble means can be problematic

Durga Lal Shrestha,D.E. Robertson,J.C. Bennett,Q.J. Wang

Journal of Hydrology（2020）

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摘要

•The Schaake shuffle instils realistic space-time patterns in calibrated forecasts.•Calibration is sometimes applied to the ensemble means.•Shuffled forecasts accumulated through time are not reliable.•High autocorrelation of ensemble means causes this issue.

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关键词

Schaake shuffle,Statistical calibration,Poor man’s ensemble,Ensemble forecasts,Autocorrelation,Reliability

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