Deterioration of oases subject to climate change and coastal development: The case of Todos Santos Oasis, Baja California Sur, Mexico.

Oases are complex ecosystems, with permanent water bodies, springs, and vegetated areas, which are located in areas where the frequency of rain is a critical factor for the maintenance and subsistence of flora and fauna. These ecosystems have been of great importance providing resources for the settlement of human societies. In addition to the natural stress to which they are confronted, oases are facing pressures related to coastal development and climate change. New research is necessary to understand the effects of these pressures, to define strategies to promote mitigation measures to limit their deterioration. In this paper, we proposed a multi-criteria methodology to define and quantify recent and future pressures to an oasis affected by climate change and coastal development and the definition of priority areas for the installation of mitigation and adaptation measures This methodology was applied to Todos Santos oasis, one of the most important wetlands in Baja California Sur state, which has been affected in recent years by coastal development. The results indicate that the integration of MODFLOW models, CCRP index, chemistry data, and geospatial analysis provides effective tools to generate information on the possible future of oases, contributing greatly to land planning, nature conservation and sustainable management of these ecosystems.