A prediction model of functional outcome at 6 months using clinical findings of a person with traumatic spinal cord injury at 1 month after injury

Study design Retrospective statistical analysis of database. Objectives Prediction of the Spinal Cord Independence Measure version III Total Score (SCIM-TS) at 6 months after injury based on physical findings at 1 month after injury is an important index for rehabilitation approach in the recovery phase. Setting Spinal Injuries Center, Fukuoka, Japan. Methods The study participants were selected from patients with traumatic spinal cord injuries who were registered in the Japan Single Center Study for Spinal Cord Injury Data Base (JSSCI-DB) of the Japan Spinal Injuries Center specializing in spine and spinal cord injuries. Of the 534 participants registered with the JSSCI-DB between January 2012 and October 2018, we retrospectively extracted 137 participants for 6 months after injury, and these participants were included in this study. Results According to multiple regression analysis, SCIM-TS at 6 months after injury could be predicted based on only six variables, i.e., age at injury, three key muscles (C6 wrist extensors, C8 finger flexors, and L3 knee extensors), and two mobility assessments (WISCI and SCIM−item13) (Adjusted R-Squared: 0.83). These six independent variables were significant factors reflecting SCIM-TS at 6 months. Conclusions In rehabilitation after traumatic spinal cord injuries, a simple and reliable prognostic model can help accurately predict the achievable activity of daily living competency to set a goal. In addition, if the procedure is simple, evaluation can be completed in a short period of time, and the physical burden on both treating staff and patients can be reduced.