lncRNAs classifier to accurately predict the recurrence of thymic epithelial tumors.

Background Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs), which have little or no ability to encode proteins, have attracted special attention due to their potential role in cancer disease. In this study we aimed to establish a lncRNAs classifier to improve the accuracy of recurrence prediction for thymic epithelial tumors (TETs). Methods TETs RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data set and the matched clinicopathologic information were downloaded from the Cancer Genome Atlas. Using univariate Cox regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis, we developed a lncRNAs classifier related to recurrence. Functional analysis was conducted to investigate the potential biological processes of the lncRNAs target genes. The independent prognostic factors were identified by Cox regression model. Additionally, predictive ability and clinical application of the lncRNAs classifier were assessed, and compared with the Masaoka staging by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Four recurrence-free survival (RFS)-related lncRNAs were identified, and the classifier consisting of the identified four lncRNAs was able to effectively divide the patients into high and low risk subgroups, with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.796 (three-year RFS) and 0.788 (five-year RFS), respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated that the lncRNAs classifier was an independent recurrence risk factor. The AUC of the lncRNAs classifier in predicting RFS was significantly higher than the Masaoka staging system. Decision curve analysis further demonstrated that the lncRNAs classifier had a larger net benefit than the Masaoka staging system. Conclusions A lncRNAs classifier for patients with TETs was an independent risk factor for RFS despite other clinicopathologic variables. It generated more accurate estimations of the recurrence probability when compared to the Masaoka staging system, but additional data is required before it can be used in clinical practice.