Precise Orbit Determination for Climate Applications of GNSS Radio Occultation including Uncertainty Estimation

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Radio Occultation (RO) is a highly valuable remote sensing technique for probing the Earth's atmosphere, due to its global coverage, high accuracy, long-term stability, and essentially all-weather capability. In order to ensure the highest quality of essential climate variables (ECVs), derived from GNSS signal tracking by RO satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO), the orbit positions and velocities of the GNSS transmitter and LEO receiver satellites need to be determined with high and proven accuracy and reliability. Wegener Center's new Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS) hence aims to integrate uncertainty estimation at all stages of the processing. Here we present a novel setup for precise orbit determination (POD) within the rOPS, which routinely and in parallel performs the LEO POD with the two independent software packages Bernese GNSS software (v5.2) and NAPEOS (v3.3.1), employing two different GNSS orbit data products. This POD setup enables mutual consistency checks of the calculated orbit solutions and is used for position and velocity uncertainty estimation, including estimated systematic and random uncertainties. For LEOs enabling laser tracking we involve position uncertainty estimates from satellite laser ranging. Furthermore, we intercompare the LEO orbit solutions with solutions from other leading orbit processing centers for cross-validation. We carefully analyze multi-month, multi-satellite POD result statistics and find a strong overall consistency of estimates within LEO orbit uncertainty target specifications of 5 cm in position and 0.05 mm/s in velocity for the CHAMP, GRACE-A, and Metop-A/B missions. In 92% of the days investigated over two representative 3-month periods (July to September in 2008 and 2013) these POD uncertainty targets, which enable highly accurate climate-quality RO processing, are satisfied. The moderately higher uncertainty estimates found for the remaining 8% of days (similar to 5-15 cm) result in increased uncertainties of RO-retrieved ECVs. This allows identification of RO profiles of somewhat reduced quality, a potential benefit for adequate further use in climate monitoring and research.