Longitudinal stability and change in adolescent substance use: A latent transition analysis

•New insights regarding stability and change in substance use initiation.•A longitudinal study with a one-year follow-up.•Three groups including nonusers, occasional users and frequent users were identified.•Nonusers and frequent users were relatively stable over time, occasional users were unstable.•Substance use started with occasional alcohol consumption and tended to progress to frequent use and illicit drugs.•The best predictor of non-use was non-use one year earlier.