The role of drought as a determinant of hemorrhagic disease in the eastern United States.

Bluetongue virus and epizootic hemorrhagic disease (HD) virus are globally distributed, vector-borne viruses that infect and cause disease in domestic and wild ruminant species. The forces driving increases in resulting HD may be linked to weather conditions and increasing severity has been noted in northerly latitudes. We evaluated the role of drought severity in both space and time on changes in HD reports across the eastern United States for a recent 15 year period. The objectives of this study were to: (a) develop a spatiotemporal model to evaluate if drought severity explains changing patterns of HD presence; and (b) determine whether this potential risk factor varies in importance over the present range of HD in the eastern United States. Historic data (2000-2014) from an annual HD presence-absence survey conducted by the Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study and from the United States Drought Monitor were used for this analysis. For every county in 23 states and for each of 15 years, data were based on reported drought status for August, wetland cover, the physiographic region, and the status of HD in the previous year. We used a generalized linear mixed model to explain HD presence and evaluated spatiotemporal predictors across the region. We found that drought severity was a significant predictor of HD presence and the significance of this relationship was dependent on latitude. In more northerly latitudes, where immunological naivety is most likely, we demonstrated the increasing strength of drought severity as a determinant of reported HD and established the importance of variation in drought severity as a risk factor over the present range of HD in the eastern United States. Our research provides spatially explicit evidence for the link between climate forces and emerging disease patterns across latitude for a globally distributed disease.