Near-Earth Orbit Satellite Collision Probability Estimation and Collision Avoidance

This paper improves the collision probability calculation algorithm and collision avoidance method between satellites. Orbit recursion predicts the satellite state and the satellite position error is extrapolated based on the CW equation, by combining the two, the prediction accuracy of the satellite position can be improved. The collision probability can be calculated based on the satellite position and position error. In the case that the collision probability is greater than the safety threshold, this paper proposes an avoidance strategy that satisfies a given threshold, first, the avoidance distance is calculated according to the expected safety threshold, and the maneuvering speed of the satellite is further obtained. The simulation results verify that the method can meet the requirements of satellite safety collision probability.