Transitions from irrigated to dryland agriculture in the Ogallala Aquifer: Land use suitability and regional economic impacts

•Depletion threatens 24 % of irrigated areas in the Ogallala Aquifer by 2100.•Studies often assume irrigation will transition to dryland farming upon depletion.•We map projected irrigation losses annually and land use suitability for crops or pasture.•13 % of projected irrigation losses are not suitable for dryland cropping.•Not accounting for suitability underestimates the economic impacts of depletion.