Long-term liver cancer incidence and mortality trends in the Changning District of Shanghai, China.

Objective To evaluate the trends and estimate the long-term effects of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer (LC) in an urban district of Shanghai, China. Methods Crude and age-standardized rates of the incidence and mortality of LC were calculated from 1973 to 2013 annually by sex, and the direction and magnitude of the trends were estimated by the average annual percentage change (AAPC) using the Joinpoint Regression Model. An age-period-cohort (APC) model was also used to evaluate the non-linear effects of calendar time and birth cohort on LC incidence and mortality. Results In 1973-1977 and 2008-2013 the age-standardized rates of LC incidence and mortality (per 100 000) were 24.27 and 22.60 in men, and 7.50 and 7.26 in women, respectively. Declining trends of LC incidence and mortality rates were observed for both sexes (AAPC; P < 0.05 for both). The APC models indicated that the rates of LC incidence and mortality were significantly influenced both by calendar time and birth cohort effects. Conclusions The incidence and mortality rates of LC have decreased in both sexes in the Changning District of Shanghai over the past four decades. Although obvious descending trends of LC incidence and mortality were detected, attention should also be paid to the LC burden for a long time in the future because of huge population size in China and the continuity of population aging.