The Elm Decline is Dead! Long Live Declines in Elm: Revisiting the Chronology of the Elm Decline in Ireland and its Association with the Mesolithic/Neolithic Transition

The Elm Decline (ED), is a marked reduction in Ulmus recognised in pollen diagrams from across north/northwest Europe c. 5-6000 cal BP, the causes of which have been much discussed for over half a century, partly because of its broad chronological correspondence with the Mesolithic-Neolithic transition. We present a formal statistical analysis of the ED chronology in Ireland, analysing its association with early Neolithic anthropogenic activity as indicated indirectly by palynological evidence and directly through radiocarbon dated cereal macrofossils. The results derived from pollen records regarded as sufficiently robust for Bayesian modelling indicate the date for the ED ranges from the later Mesolithic to middle Neolithic. Different palynological 'expressions' of the ED are identified, and comparison of the ED date range and increases in Plantago lanceolata indicate that although correlation between anthropogenic activity and the onset of the 'Elm Decline' can be identified at several sites, this is not consistent. Comparison with the cereal macrofossil record demonstrates that generally the ED occurred prior to the onset of Neolithic cereal cultivation as defined by these data. We discuss implications for understanding the patterns and processes that may underlie the ED and question whether the 'Elm Decline' continues to merit the definite article.