Individual Specialization and Multi-host Epidemics: Disease Spread in Plant-Pollinator Networks

Many parasites infect multiple species and persist through a combination of within- and between-species transmission. Multispecies transmission networks are typically constructed at the species level, linking two species if any individuals of those species interact. However, generalist species often consist of specialized individuals that prefer different subsets of available resources, so individual- and species-level contact networks can differ systematically. To explore the epidemiological impacts of host specialization, we build and study a model for pollinator pathogens on plantpollinator networks, in which individual pollinators have dynamic preferences for different flower species. We find that modeling and analysis that ignore individual host specialization can predict dieoff of a disease that is actually strongly persistent and can badly over- or underpredict steady-state disease prevalence. Effects of individual preferences remain substantial whenever mean preference duration exceeds half of themean time frominfection to recovery or death. Similar results hold in amodel where hosts foraging in different habitats have different frequencies of contact with an environmental reservoir for the pathogen. Thus, even if all hosts have the same long-run average behavior, dynamic individual differences can profoundly affect disease persistence and prevalence.