Reaching for the stars: The importance of reputational rank in creative career development

•Professional reputation and creative careers coevolve in project-based labor markets in the cultural industries.•Reputational rank not overall cumulative performance or reputational rank at the industry level predicts career progress.•Theorizing careers as reputational rank contests at each career stage explains the oversupply of labor in cultural industries.•Early endorsements by prominent cultural industry insiders increase the likelihood of career progression but at a decreasing rate.