Forecasting yields, prices and net returns for main cereal crops in Tanzania as probability distributions: A multivariate empirical (MVE) approach

•We developed a probabilistic simulation model to simulate the potential viability of major cereal crops in Tanzania.•The risk facing profitability of cereals in semi-arid and sub-humid agro-ecological zones is included in the analysis.•We simulated the feasibility of maize, sorghum and rice crop sub-sectors in the next seven years through 2025.•The result in semi-arid indicates a higher probability of success for all crops, with rice showing high variability.•Sub-humid presented a high probability of success for all cereals except maize.