Preoperative serum levels of HE4 and CA125 predict primary optimal cytoreduction in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: a preliminary model study

Objective The aim of this study is to establish a noninvasive preoperative model for predicting primary optimal cytoreduction in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer by HE4 and CA125 combined with clinicopathological parameters. Methods Clinical data including preoperative serum HE4 and CA125 level of 83 patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer were collected. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and overall accuracy of each clinical parameter were calculated. The Predictive Index score model and the logistic model were constructed to predict the primary optimal cytoreduction. Results Optimal surgical cytoreduction was achieved in 62.65% (52/83) patients. Cutoff values of preoperative serum HE4 and CA125 were 777.10 pmol/L and 313.60 U/ml. (1) Patients with PIV ≥ 6 may not be able to achieve optimal surgical cytoreduction. The diagnostic accuracy, NPV, PPV and specificity for diagnosing suboptimal cytoreduction were 71, 100, 68, and 100%, respectively. (2) The logistic model was: logit p = 0.12 age − 2.38 preoperative serum CA125 level − 1.86 preoperative serum HE4 level-2.74 histological type-3.37. AUC of the logistic model in the validation group was 0.71(95%CI 0.54–0.88, P = 0.025). Sensitivity and specificity were 1.00 and 0.44, respectively. Conclusion Age, preoperative serum CA125 level and preoperative serum HE4 level are important non-invasive predictors of primary optimal surgical cytoreduction in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer. Our PIV and logistic model can be used for assessment before expensive and complex predictive methods including laparoscopy and diagnostic imaging. Further future clinical validation is needed.