Separate seasons of infection and reproduction can lead to multi-year population cycles.

Frank M Hilker,T Anthony Sun,Linda J S Allen,Frédéric M Hamelin

Journal of Theoretical Biology（2020）

Cited 6|Views13

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Abstract

•We propose and study a discrete-time SI model that shows (quasi-)periodic cycles.•Infection and reproduction are assumed to occur in separate seasons of the year.•Fecundity and survival depend on infection status, creating a carry-over effect.•Density-dependent disease transmission and high virulence cause host booms and busts.•There are no cycles if all processes would take place simultaneously.

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Key words

Host–pathogen dynamics,Pathogen-driven outbreak,Quasi-periodic oscillation,Neimark-Sacker bifurcation,SI model,Difference equations,Seasonal population dynamics

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