Probabilistic mapping of flood hazards: depicting uncertainty in streamflow, land use, and geomorphic adjustment

•Probabilistic floodplain maps were developed through Monte Carlo simulations of flood hydraulics.•Probabilistic floodplain maps reflect uncertainty in discharge, land use, and geomorphic adjustment.•Flood hazard uncertainty is spatially variable and zones of hidden risk are identified.•Nonstationary flood peaks increase the magnitude of flood hazard estimates.•A simplified approach simulates uncertainty from ensemble results with high skill.