The impact of China's ‘Atmosphere Ten Articles’ policy on total factor productivity of energy exploitation: Empirical evidence using synthetic control methods

Implementation of the atmospheric policy is important to influence energy production and exploitation. By implementing the atmospheric policy, this study has simulated and compared the energy exploitation total factor productivity (TFP) change path for the energy extraction and enrichment areas applying the synthetic control method, using Chinese panel data for the period from 2007 to 2016. The results show that the atmospheric policy will help the growth of TFP in Shandong, Anhui, and Shanxi, but the impact in most areas is not observable, and the lagging effect of atmospheric policy is conspicuous in Gansu, Shaanxi, Liaoning, and other places. Based on this, the study proposes three mechanisms to explain how atmospheric policy affects energy production TFP and uses a panel Tobit model to test the path of action. The test results show that implementation of the atmospheric policy has not improved energy exploitation TFP effectively, but it has to be implemented. Time effect and the model estimation results show that the atmospheric policy and technological innovations are more conducive to improving energy exploitation TFP, but the role of industrial division of labour and the energy market price mechanism makes it difficult to promote energy exploitation TFP. The influence of atmospheric policy varies in different regions and is inconsistent in the northeast and east. The regional atmospheric policy can significantly promote energy exploitation TFP in the region, but the central and western regions do not show significant inverse relationship with the energy exploitation TFP.