Predicting the ecological status of rivers and streams under different climatic and socioeconomic scenarios using Bayesian Belief Networks

•This paper models for the first time the ecological status of rivers using BBNs.•Data was integrated to model the effect of multiple stressors in two basins in Denmark and Portugal.•The impact of combined climate and socioeconomic changes scenarios was assessed.•Scenarios demonstrated small impacts on the biological quality elements analysed.•Most of the rivers in both basins will not fulfil the European WFD targets.