Exploring temperature and precipitation impacts on harmful algal blooms across continental U.S. lakes

Climate change is expected to impact the severity of harmful algal blooms in lakes and reservoirs through a number of mechanisms related to the influence of warming temperatures and changes to precipitation patterns. Evidence on the prevalence of individual mechanisms is lacking, however, with knowledge of many mechanisms restricted to studies of individual or small subsets of lakes. Here, we leverage over twelve hundred summertime lake observations from across the continental U.S. to explore evidence for the hypothesized risks from climate change attributable to specific mechanisms. Using a statistical model selection approach, we examine associations between temperature and precipitation variables and indicators of total phytoplankton abundance, species dominance, and toxicity. We find evidence in support of the hypotheses that summer temperatures drive total abundance, that the length of the summer drives cyanobacterial abundance, and that increased temperatures may reduce the observed toxicity of blooms in some cases. We find that nutrient concentrations are also likely to be impacted by lake warming, as increased temperatures are robustly associated with increased total phosphorus concentrations. Evidence for the impact of precipitation is mixed, however, as there is evidence to support that increased nutrient runoff from precipitation could support blooms but also that nutrient concentrations could be reduced through greater flushing due to precipitation. While statistical associations are not definitive evidence of formal mechanistic links, the geographic scale of the results is useful for identifying hypothesized mechanisms that are widespread across the continental U.S., and therefore for informing understanding of the influence of climate change.