Modeling And Decision Of Success Probability Of Ship Sail Mission In Multi-Force Cooperative Operation On The Sea

Thinking about the requirements of ship missions in multi-force sea cooperative operations, put forward the view of redundancy time in ship sail. The definition of redundancy time is given and modeled. The criterion for judging the failure of the sail is discussed. The calculation method of the upper and lower limits of the redundancy time and the actual redundancy time in the sail is given, and the redundancy time and the success probability of the typical redundancy process are calculated by the simulation method. The relationship between the probability of sail success and various types of sail parameters is discussed, and the optimal sail strategy of the ship is analyzed. A feasible solution is proposed for the simultaneous arrival problem in multi-military maritime coordinated operations.