Landscape connectivity for mammalian megafauna along the Iran-Turkmenistan-Afghanistan borderland

Habitat fragmentation threatens biodiversity, causes population isolation and reduces the availability of resources. When species ranges span geopolitical borders, management of transboundary populations and securing their connectivity can be compromised by different conservation priorities and juridical efforts. Using a combination of species distribution modelling and circuit theory, we modelled suitable habitats for four conservation-dependent mammalian megafauna in northeastern Iran, bordering Turkmenistan and Afghanistan which is part of the larger Kopet Dag Ecoregion in central Asia. Our multispecies approach aimed to identify key habitats and potential national and international corridors for Persian leopard (Panthera pardus), bezoar goat (Capra aegagrus), urial (Ovis orientalis) and goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) based on environmental variables. Between 18 to 34% of the study area was identified as suitable habitat for each species with a moderate variability in coverage by conservation network, ranging between 14 to 43%). Importantly, we identified three key landscapes which can enhance the connectivity between main populations of the species in northeastern Iran as well as neighboring countries. Most of the suitable landscapes along the Iran-Turkmenistan borderlands are protected on the Iranian side, providing a source for landscape connectivity across the border. In contrast, the main suitable landscapes for megafauna in northeastern Iran are located far from the Afghan border. Our multispecies approach provided an empirical framework for spatial conservation planning for the mammalian megafauna across the Kopet Dag Ecoregion and can direct future survey efforts to identify critical wildlife areas in Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, two countries with scarce data on biodiversity.