Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of the Driving Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Empirical Evidence from Fujian, China

With the development of agricultural modernization, the carbon emissions caused by the agricultural sector have attracted academic and practitioners' circles' attention. This research selected the typical agricultural development province in China, Fujian, as the research object. Based on the carbon emission sources of five main aspects in agricultural production, this paper applied the latest carbon emission coefficients released by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the UN (IPCC) and World Resources Institute (WRI), then used the ordered weighted aggregation (OWA) operator to remeasure agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian from 2008-2017. The results showed that the amount of agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian was 5541.95 x 10(3) tonnes by 2017, which means the average amount of agricultural carbon emissions in 2017 was 615.78 x 10(3) tonnes, with a decrease of 13.13% compared with that in 2008. In terms of spatial distribution, agricultural carbon emissions in the eastern coastal areas were less than those in the inland regions. Among them, the highest agricultural carbon emissions were in Zhangzhou, Nanping, and Sanming, while the lowest were in Xiamen, Putian, and Ningde. In addition, this paper selected six influencing variables, the research and development intensity, the proportion of agricultural labor force, the added value of agriculture, the agricultural industrial structure, the per capita disposable income of rural residents, and per capita arable land area, to clarify further the impacts on agricultural carbon emissions. Finally, geographically- and temporally-weighted regression (GTWR) was used to measure the direction and degree of the influences of factors on agricultural carbon emission. The conclusion showed that the regression coefficients of each selected factor in cities were positive or negative, which indicated that the impacts on agricultural carbon emission had the characteristics of geospatial nonstationarity.