Exploring ecosystem services and scenario simulation in the headwaters of Qiantang River watershed of China

Background Land use change has a significant impact on ecosystem services in watershed systems. The upper part of Qiantang River, Kaihua Country has experienced land-use changes over the past 15 years, but the effect of these changes on ecosystem services remains unknown. Objective This study evaluates land-use changes in response to ecological protection and the effects on ecosystem services. Methods Ecosystem services during 2000–2015 are assessed and compared to future land use scenarios in 2025 (business-as-usual, strategic planning, environmental protection, and economic development). These scenarios are identified in collaboration with local stakeholders and used to assess changes in ecosystem services under future scenarios. Results Analysis shows that during 2000–2015, the woodland increased by 7335 ha as a result of the “Grain for green” policy, and the built-up land increased by 2259 ha due to urbanization, and these changes affected ecosystem services, such as water yield, nitrogen and phosphorus exports which decreased by 0.29%, 12.45%, and 13.74%, respectively, and soil retention, carbon storage, and habitat quality index increased by 0.05%, 1.36%, and 0.80%, respectively. Conclusion Among all the future scenarios, the strategic planning scenario is an optimal land use strategy to balance the demand for urban development, while providing higher levels of ecosystem services.