Detecting Underspecification with Local Ensembles
ICLR(2021)
Abstract
We present local ensembles, a method for detecting underspecification -- when many possible predictors are consistent with the training data and model class -- at test time in a pre-trained model. Our method uses local second-order information to approximate the variance of predictions across an ensemble of models from the same class. We compute this approximation by estimating the norm of the component of a test point's gradient that aligns with the low-curvature directions of the Hessian, and provide a tractable method for estimating this quantity. Experimentally, we show that our method is capable of detecting when a pre-trained model is underspecified on test data, with applications to out-of-distribution detection, detecting spurious correlates, and active learning.
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Key words
extrapolation, reliability, influence functions, laplace approximation, ensembles, Rashomon set
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