Finding the sweet spot: Shifting optimal climate for maple syrup production in North America

We used data on a forest-based ecosystem service, sugar maple (Acer saccharum) sap, spanning sugar maple’s latitudinal range to predict the role of climate variation on two aspects of sap productivity: sugar content and sap flow. The sugar in maple sap is derived from carbohydrate stores influenced by growing season conditions in the prior year, while sap flow is tied to freeze/thaw cycles during early spring. Our findings suggest optimal regions for sap production will move northward, with lower average production across nearly the entire range except for the far north, and provide spatially-explicit projections for forest managers and syrup producers making decisions on the location and viability of management for maple syrup production.