Individual risk evaluation for local recurrence and distant metastasis in Ewing sarcoma: A multistate model: A multistate model for Ewing sarcoma.

Background We investigated the effects of surgical margins, histological response, and radiotherapy on local recurrence (LR), distant metastasis (DM), and survival in Ewing sarcoma. Procedure Disease evolution was retrospectively studied in 982 patients with Ewing sarcoma undergoing surgery after chemotherapy using a multistate model with initial state surgery, intermediate states LR, pulmonary metastasis (DMpulm), other DM +/- LR (DMother), and final state death. Effect of risk factors was estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Results The median follow-up was 7.6 years (95% CI, 7.2-8.0). Risk factors for LR are pelvic location, HR 2.04 (1.10-3.80), marginal/intralesional resection, HR 2.28 (1.25-4.16), and radiotherapy, HR 0.52 (0.28-0.95); for DMpulm the risk factors are <90% necrosis, HR 2.13 (1.13-4.00), and previous pulmonary metastasis, HR 4.90 (2.28-8.52); for DMother are 90% to 99% necrosis, HR 1.56 (1.09-2.23), <90% necrosis, HR 2.66 (1.87-3.79), previous bone/other metastasis, HR 3.08 (2.03-4.70); and risk factors for death without LR/DM are pulmonary metastasis, HR 8.08 (4.01-16.29), bone/other metastasis, HR 10.23 (4.90-21.36), and <90% necrosis, HR 6.35 (3.18-12.69). Early LR (0-24 months) negatively influences survival, HR 3.79 (1.34-10.76). Once DMpulm/DMother arise only previous bone/other metastasis remain prognostic for death, HR 1.74 (1.10-2.75). Conclusion Disease extent and histological response are risk factors for progression to DM or death. Tumor site and surgical margins are risk factors for LR. If disease progression occurs, previous risk factors lose their relevance. In case of isolated LR, time to recurrence is important for decision-making. Radiotherapy seems protective for LR especially in pelvic/axial. Low percentages of LR in extremity tumors and associated toxicity question the need for radiotherapy in extremity Ewing sarcoma.