Estimated Global, Regional, and National Cardiometabolic Disease Burdens Related to Red and Processed Meat Consumption: An Analysis from the Global Dietary Database (P10-073-19).

Abstract Objectives Red and processed meats are associated with cardiometabolic disease (CMD) risk; yet, corresponding global burdens are not well established. We aimed to quantify the impact of meat intake on coronary heart disease (CHD) and type 2 diabetes mortality by nation (n = 187), super-region (n = 9), age (20 + y), and sex using the largest standardized Global Dietary Database (GDD) available. Methods A comparative risk assessment model estimated the absolute and % CHD and diabetes mortality attributable to suboptimal unprocessed red and processed meat consumption, incorporating data and corresponding uncertainty on: intakes from the GDD, estimated by a Bayesian hierarchical imputation model using national and sub-national surveys worldwide (266 surveys; 1630,069 individuals; 113/187 countries; 82% of the world's population); etiologic effects of meat intake on CHD and diabetes mortality from meta-analyses of prospective cohorts; optimal population meat intakes based on observed intakes associated with lowest risk; and disease-specific deaths from the Global Burden of Diseases. Results In 2010, suboptimal red meat intake was associated with 43,987 (95% uncertainty interval: 42,243–45,635) diabetes deaths, accounting for 3.5% (3.4–3.6%) of global diabetes mortality. Highest proportional mortality was estimated in Central African Republic, United Arab Emirates, and Gabon (Figure 1). Similar attributable mortality was seen in men (4%) vs women (3%), and higher in younger (25–54 y; 5–7%) vs older (55–85 y; 1–4%) adults. Processed meat intake was linked to 510,214 (482,092–541,175) CHD and 86,923 (83,832–90,488) diabetes deaths, accounting for 7.3% (6.9–7.8%) of global CHD and 6.9% (6.7–7.2%) of diabetes mortality. CHD mortality was highest in Panama, Costa Rica, and Colombia, and diabetes mortality in Panama, Belarus, and El Salvador (Figure 2). Attributable mortality was higher in men vs women (CHD: 9 vs 6%; diabetes: 8 vs 6%), and in younger vs older adults (14–15% vs 4–11%; 12–15% vs 3–9%). Meat-related CMD burdens in 1990 and 2015 will be presented at the meeting. Conclusions Suboptimal processed meat intake contributed to substantial CMD mortality, greatly exceeding burdens attributed to unprocessed red meats. Such data highlight the need for strategies to reduce meat, particularly processed meat, consumption. Funding Sources Gates Foundation. Supporting Tables, Images and/or Graphs