Predictions for radio afterglows of binary neutron star mergers: a population study for O3 and beyond

Following the historical observations of GW170817 and its multi-wavelength afterglow, more radio afterglows from neutron star mergers are expected in the future as counterparts to gravitational wave inspiral signals. We wish to describe these events using our current knowledge of the intrinsic population of neutron star mergers coming from gamma-ray burst science, and taking into account the sensitivities of current and future gravitational wave and radio detectors. This is done by coupling a semi-analytical model for the jet-dominated radio afterglow from a neutron star merger, an analytical simplified model for the gravitational wave signal from such events, and a population model prescribing the energetics, external density and other relevant parameters of the mergers. We report the expected distributions of observables (distance, orientation, afterglow peak time and flux, etc.) from future events and study how these can be used to further probe the population of binary neutron stars, their mergers and related outflows during future observing campaigns. In the case of the O3 run of the LIGO-Virgo Collaboration, the radio afterglow of one third of gravitational-wave-detected mergers should be detectable--and detected if the source is localized thanks to the kilonova counterpart--by the Very Large Array, and these events should have viewing angles similar to that of GW170817. These findings confirm the radio afterglow as a powerful insight on these events, though some key afterglow-related techniques--such as Very Long Base Interferometry imaging of the merger remnant--may no longer be possible as the gravitational wave horizon increases.