Development of a predictive model for drug-associated QT prolongation in the inpatient setting using electronic health record data.

Purpose We aimed to construct a dynamic model for predicting severe QT interval prolongation in hospitalized patients using inpatient electronic health record (EHR) data. Methods A retrospective cohort consisting of all adults admitted to 2 large hospitals from January 2012 through October 2013 was established. Thirty-five risk factors for severe QT prolongation (defined as a Bazett's formula-corrected QT interval [QTc] of >= 500 msec or a QTc increase of >= 60 msec from baseline) were operationalized for automated EHR retrieval; upon univariate analyses, 26 factors were retained in models for predicting the 24-hour risk of QT events on hospital day 1 (the Day 1 model) and on hospital days 2-5 (the Days 2-5 model). Results A total of 1,672 QT prolongation events occurred over 165,847 days of risk exposure during the study period. C statistics were 0.828 for the Day 1 model and 0.813 for the Days 2-5 model. Patients in the upper 50th percentile of calculated risk scores experienced 755 of 799 QT events (94%) allocated in the Day 1 model and 804 of 873 QT events (92%) allocated in the Days 2-5 model. Among patients in the 90th percentile, the Day 1 and Days 2-5 models captured 351 of 799 (44%) and 362 of 873 (41%) QT events, respectively. Conclusion The risk models derived from EHR data for all admitted patients had good predictive validity. All risk factors were operationalized from discrete EHR fields to allow full automation for real-time identification of high-risk patients. Further research to test the models in other health systems and evaluate their effectiveness on outcomes and patient care in clinical practice is recommended.