A process-based model of pre-eruption seismicity patterns and its use for eruption forecasting at dormant stratovolcanoes

Using long-term data sets, the eruptive size, timing and style can typically be successfully forecast for dormant volcanoes using current monitoring data and knowledge of precursory eruptive patterns. The USAID-USGS Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) utilizes seismic data over multiple eruption cycles and across volcano types to successfully forecast eruption size, style and onset times, as well as changes within ongoing eruptions. From millions of seismic event observations, we show that seismic data, a proxy for rate-dependent strain changes in the magmatic system, combined with a process-based conceptual geologic model enables eruption forecasting, especially for stratovolcanoes dormant >20 years. We show that this model often works for some open systems, ones that sufficiently reseal to plug the conduit, and also where a deep intrusion occurs after phreatic or phreatomagmatic explosions have begun.