Multi-scenario simulation of landscape ecological risk probability to facilitate different decision-making preferences

Landscape ecological risk assessment is an effective tool to support sustainable ecosystem management in regions with rapid urbanization. However, the characterization method of landscape ecological risk probability needs urgent improvement. This study put forwards a comprehensive index system for risk probability characterization using the factors of terrain, artificial threats, ecological resilience, and landscape vulnerability. In addition, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) algorithm was introduced to realize a multi-scenario simulation to facilitate different decision-making preferences. The results showed that (1) the overall landscape ecological risk probability in Shenzhen, China, was higher in the west than in the east, and the dominated probability levels were low and moderate. (2) Three decision-making scenarios were simulated: basic risk control, moderate risk control, and strict risk control. About 307.88 km2 of unstable risk probability areas were identified, of which the relationship between development and protection should be scrutinized more in the “eastward strategy” for the future. (3) As for the methodology, this index system contained multiple dimensions including ecological processes, external threats, and landscape feature patterns. It is advantageous in that it provides an ecological risk measure for the future, the characterization of spatial heterogeneity, stable and reliable results, and the definite implications of the risks.